2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 11:00 PM · McLane Stadium
Texas State @ Baylor
Predicted scoreConfident
Texas State
14.1
Baylor
40.3
Baylor win probability: 95%
Margin (Baylor − Texas State): 26.2 (80% range 6 to 48)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Texas State 42 – Baylor 31 (margin error 37.2, total error 18.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.92% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.86% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.86% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 10 | 45 | 0.77% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.