2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 7:30 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

South Florida @ Western Kentucky

Predicted scoreLikely

South Florida

21.9

Western Kentucky

34.9

Western Kentucky win probability: 79%

Margin (Western Kentucky − South Florida): 13.0 (80% range -7 to 34)

Total: 56.8 (80% range 33 to 83)

Actual: South Florida 24 – Western Kentucky 41 (margin error 4.0, total error 8.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.