Predicted scoreLean
Marshall
25.8
Louisiana
30.7
Louisiana win probability: 62%
Margin (Louisiana − Marshall): 4.9 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Marshall 31 – Louisiana 3 (margin error 32.9, total error 22.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 28 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.