Predicted scoreConfident
NC State
33.5
UConn
17.2
UConn win probability: 15%
Margin (UConn − NC State): -16.3 (80% range -37 to 4)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: NC State 24 – UConn 14 (margin error 6.3, total error 12.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 10 | 0.86% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.82% |
| 38 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.