2023 Week 1 · Aug 31, 2023, 11:00 PM · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Kent State @ UCF
Predicted scoreConfident
Kent State
19.9
UCF
39.3
UCF win probability: 88%
Margin (UCF − Kent State): 19.3 (80% range -1 to 41)
Total: 59.2 (80% range 35 to 85)
Actual: Kent State 6 – UCF 56 (margin error 30.7, total error 2.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.