2023 Week 1 · Aug 27, 2023, 1:00 AM · Joe Aillet Stadium

Florida International @ Louisiana Tech

Predicted scoreLikely

Florida International

19.1

Louisiana Tech

32.6

Louisiana Tech win probability: 80%

Margin (Louisiana Tech − Florida International): 13.5 (80% range -7 to 34)

Total: 51.7 (80% range 29 to 76)

Actual: Florida International 17 – Louisiana Tech 22 (margin error 8.5, total error 12.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.