2023 Week 1 · Aug 26, 2023, 11:00 PM · Aggie Memorial Stadium

Massachusetts @ New Mexico State

Predicted scoreLikely

Massachusetts

22.4

New Mexico State

32.0

New Mexico State win probability: 72%

Margin (New Mexico State − Massachusetts): 9.6 (80% range -11 to 31)

Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Massachusetts 41 – New Mexico State 30 (margin error 20.6, total error 16.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.