2023 Week 1 · Aug 26, 2023, 6:30 PM · Aviva Stadium (neutral site)

Navy @ Notre Dame

Predicted scoreLikely

Navy

17.1

Notre Dame

32.0

Notre Dame win probability: 83%

Margin (Notre Dame − Navy): 14.9 (80% range -4 to 35)

Total: 49.2 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Navy 3 – Notre Dame 42 (margin error 24.1, total error 4.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.