2024 Week 14 · Dec 1, 2024, 12:30 AM · Jack Trice Stadium

Kansas State @ Iowa State

Predicted scoreLean

Kansas State

23.0

Iowa State

27.5

Iowa State win probability: 62%

Margin (Iowa State − Kansas State): 4.5 (80% range -15 to 24)

Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Kansas State 21 – Iowa State 29 (margin error 3.5, total error 0.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.