2024 Week 14 · Dec 1, 2024, 12:00 AM · Doak Campbell Stadium

Florida @ Florida State

Predicted scoreLean

Florida

28.5

Florida State

21.0

Florida State win probability: 32%

Margin (Florida State − Florida): -7.5 (80% range -28 to 13)

Total: 49.5 (80% range 28 to 73)

Actual: Florida 31 – Florida State 11 (margin error 12.5, total error 7.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.