2024 Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024, 8:30 PM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium

California @ SMU

Predicted scoreLikely

California

20.5

SMU

32.7

SMU win probability: 78%

Margin (SMU − California): 12.2 (80% range -8 to 32)

Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 77)

Actual: California 6 – SMU 38 (margin error 19.8, total error 9.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.