Predicted scoreLean
Utah
21.2
UCF
28.8
UCF win probability: 68%
Margin (UCF − Utah): 7.5 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 50.0 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Utah 28 – UCF 14 (margin error 21.5, total error 8.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.