2024 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2024, 8:30 PM · Hancock Whitney Stadium

Texas State @ South Alabama

Predicted scoreToss-up

Texas State

29.0

South Alabama

28.1

South Alabama win probability: 48%

Margin (South Alabama − Texas State): -0.9 (80% range -21 to 20)

Total: 57.1 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Texas State 45 – South Alabama 38 (margin error 6.1, total error 25.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.