2024 Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024, 8:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

South Alabama @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLikely

South Alabama

34.9

Southern Miss

18.8

Southern Miss win probability: 16%

Margin (Southern Miss − South Alabama): -16.1 (80% range -37 to 4)

Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 78)

Actual: South Alabama 35 – Southern Miss 14 (margin error 4.9, total error 4.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.