2024 Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024, 7:30 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreToss-up

New Mexico State

28.3

Middle Tennessee

30.8

Middle Tennessee win probability: 56%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − New Mexico State): 2.5 (80% range -18 to 24)

Total: 59.1 (80% range 34 to 86)

Actual: New Mexico State 36 – Middle Tennessee 21 (margin error 17.5, total error 2.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.