2024 Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024, 6:00 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)

Western Kentucky @ Liberty

Predicted scoreToss-up

Western Kentucky

29.5

Liberty

27.3

Liberty win probability: 45%

Margin (Liberty − Western Kentucky): -2.1 (80% range -23 to 18)

Total: 56.8 (80% range 34 to 82)

Actual: Western Kentucky 21 – Liberty 38 (margin error 19.1, total error 2.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.