Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa
24.4
Maryland
25.1
Maryland win probability: 51%
Margin (Maryland − Iowa): 0.6 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 49.5 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Iowa 29 – Maryland 13 (margin error 16.6, total error 7.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.