2024 Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024, 1:00 AM · Spartan Stadium
Purdue @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreLikely
Purdue
22.2
Michigan State
32.3
Michigan State win probability: 74%
Margin (Michigan State − Purdue): 10.2 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Purdue 17 – Michigan State 24 (margin error 3.2, total error 13.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.