Predicted scoreLean
Ohio
22.5
Toledo
26.9
Toledo win probability: 61%
Margin (Toledo − Ohio): 4.4 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 49.5 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Ohio 24 – Toledo 7 (margin error 21.4, total error 18.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.82% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.