2024 Week 12 · Nov 17, 2024, 1:00 AM · Jack Trice Stadium
Cincinnati @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLikely
Cincinnati
22.2
Iowa State
30.6
Iowa State win probability: 70%
Margin (Iowa State − Cincinnati): 8.4 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Cincinnati 17 – Iowa State 34 (margin error 8.6, total error 1.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.