2024 Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024, 10:00 PM · Center Parc Stadium

Arkansas State @ Georgia State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Arkansas State

29.3

Georgia State

32.4

Georgia State win probability: 57%

Margin (Georgia State − Arkansas State): 3.1 (80% range -18 to 24)

Total: 61.7 (80% range 37 to 88)

Actual: Arkansas State 27 – Georgia State 20 (margin error 10.1, total error 14.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.