2024 Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024, 7:30 PM · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Michigan State @ Illinois

Predicted scoreLean

Michigan State

22.2

Illinois

27.6

Illinois win probability: 63%

Margin (Illinois − Michigan State): 5.4 (80% range -14 to 25)

Total: 49.8 (80% range 27 to 73)

Actual: Michigan State 16 – Illinois 38 (margin error 16.6, total error 4.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.