Predicted scoreToss-up
Houston
24.7
Arizona
28.1
Arizona win probability: 58%
Margin (Arizona − Houston): 3.4 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Houston 3 – Arizona 27 (margin error 20.6, total error 22.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.