2024 Week 12 · Nov 13, 2024, 12:00 AM · UB Stadium
Ball State @ Buffalo
Predicted scoreLean
Ball State
23.7
Buffalo
29.1
Buffalo win probability: 63%
Margin (Buffalo − Ball State): 5.3 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Ball State 48 – Buffalo 51 (margin error 2.3, total error 46.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.