2024 Week 11 · Nov 10, 2024, 2:45 AM · Falcon Stadium
Fresno State @ Air Force
Predicted scoreLean
Fresno State
24.1
Air Force
19.3
Air Force win probability: 37%
Margin (Air Force − Fresno State): -4.8 (80% range -24 to 14)
Total: 43.4 (80% range 23 to 65)
Actual: Fresno State 28 – Air Force 36 (margin error 12.8, total error 20.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.94% |
| 14 | 14 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.