2024 Week 11 · Nov 10, 2024, 12:00 AM · Mountain America Stadium

UCF @ Arizona State

Predicted scoreToss-up

UCF

28.8

Arizona State

31.5

Arizona State win probability: 56%

Margin (Arizona State − UCF): 2.7 (80% range -18 to 24)

Total: 60.3 (80% range 35 to 87)

Actual: UCF 31 – Arizona State 35 (margin error 1.3, total error 5.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.