Predicted scoreLean
UConn
29.8
UAB
22.7
UAB win probability: 32%
Margin (UAB − UConn): -7.1 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 52.5 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: UConn 31 – UAB 23 (margin error 0.9, total error 1.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 28 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.