2024 Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024, 5:00 PM · Malone Stadium
Texas State @ UL Monroe
Predicted scoreLean
Texas State
28.7
UL Monroe
23.4
UL Monroe win probability: 37%
Margin (UL Monroe − Texas State): -5.3 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Texas State 38 – UL Monroe 17 (margin error 15.7, total error 3.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.