Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa
25.8
UCLA
24.5
UCLA win probability: 47%
Margin (UCLA − Iowa): -1.2 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 50.3 (80% range 28 to 74)
Actual: Iowa 17 – UCLA 20 (margin error 4.2, total error 13.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.