Predicted scoreLean
Arizona
25.8
UCF
33.0
UCF win probability: 67%
Margin (UCF − Arizona): 7.2 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 58.8 (80% range 34 to 84)
Actual: Arizona 12 – UCF 56 (margin error 36.8, total error 9.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.