Predicted scoreLikely
Duke
24.7
Miami
34.6
Miami win probability: 73%
Margin (Miami − Duke): 9.9 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 59.3 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: Duke 31 – Miami 53 (margin error 12.1, total error 24.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.