Predicted scoreToss-up
Memphis
28.6
UTSA
24.9
UTSA win probability: 41%
Margin (UTSA − Memphis): -3.7 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Memphis 36 – UTSA 44 (margin error 11.7, total error 26.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.