2024 Week 10 · Oct 29, 2024, 11:30 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Louisiana @ Texas State

Predicted scoreLean

Louisiana

24.7

Texas State

32.7

Texas State win probability: 69%

Margin (Texas State − Louisiana): 8.0 (80% range -13 to 28)

Total: 57.5 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Louisiana 23 – Texas State 17 (margin error 14.0, total error 17.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.