Predicted scoreToss-up
Utah
24.7
Houston
20.8
Houston win probability: 40%
Margin (Houston − Utah): -3.8 (80% range -24 to 16)
Total: 45.5 (80% range 24 to 68)
Actual: Utah 14 – Houston 17 (margin error 6.8, total error 14.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.89% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.