Predicted scoreLikely
Illinois
21.0
Oregon
35.9
Oregon win probability: 82%
Margin (Oregon − Illinois): 15.0 (80% range -6 to 35)
Total: 56.9 (80% range 34 to 82)
Actual: Illinois 9 – Oregon 38 (margin error 14.0, total error 9.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 35 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.