Predicted scoreToss-up
BYU
26.7
UCF
26.3
UCF win probability: 49%
Margin (UCF − BYU): -0.4 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 53.0 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: BYU 37 – UCF 24 (margin error 12.6, total error 8.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.