Predicted scoreToss-up
Buffalo
22.7
Ohio
26.6
Ohio win probability: 60%
Margin (Ohio − Buffalo): 3.9 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 49.3 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Buffalo 16 – Ohio 47 (margin error 27.1, total error 13.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.86% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.67% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.