2024 Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024, 11:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

Arkansas State @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLikely

Arkansas State

34.1

Southern Miss

25.0

Southern Miss win probability: 29%

Margin (Southern Miss − Arkansas State): -9.1 (80% range -31 to 12)

Total: 59.1 (80% range 35 to 85)

Actual: Arkansas State 44 – Southern Miss 28 (margin error 6.9, total error 12.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.