2024 Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024, 7:30 PM · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Michigan @ Illinois

Predicted scoreLikely

Michigan

29.3

Illinois

21.2

Illinois win probability: 30%

Margin (Illinois − Michigan): -8.1 (80% range -28 to 11)

Total: 50.5 (80% range 28 to 74)

Actual: Michigan 7 – Illinois 21 (margin error 22.1, total error 22.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.