2024 Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024, 2:30 AM · Mackay Stadium
Fresno State @ Nevada
Predicted scoreToss-up
Fresno State
26.5
Nevada
26.5
Nevada win probability: 50%
Margin (Nevada − Fresno State): -0.0 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 31 to 77)
Actual: Fresno State 24 – Nevada 21 (margin error 3.0, total error 8.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 21 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.