2024 Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024, 11:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Arkansas State @ Texas State

Predicted scoreLean

Arkansas State

26.1

Texas State

34.8

Texas State win probability: 70%

Margin (Texas State − Arkansas State): 8.8 (80% range -12 to 31)

Total: 60.9 (80% range 37 to 87)

Actual: Arkansas State 9 – Texas State 41 (margin error 23.2, total error 10.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.