2024 Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024, 7:30 PM · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Cincinnati @ UCF
Predicted scoreToss-up
Cincinnati
31.4
UCF
32.1
UCF win probability: 52%
Margin (UCF − Cincinnati): 0.7 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 63.6 (80% range 38 to 90)
Actual: Cincinnati 19 – UCF 13 (margin error 6.7, total error 31.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 28 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.