2024 Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024, 11:30 PM · Michigan Stadium
Fresno State @ Michigan
Predicted scoreConfident
Fresno State
13.2
Michigan
40.7
Michigan win probability: 96%
Margin (Michigan − Fresno State): 27.5 (80% range 7 to 49)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Fresno State 10 – Michigan 30 (margin error 7.5, total error 13.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.89% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.88% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.86% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 45 | 0.75% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.