2024 Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024, 11:45 PM · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

UCF @ Florida

Predicted scoreLean

UCF

28.0

Florida

34.1

Florida win probability: 64%

Margin (Florida − UCF): 6.1 (80% range -15 to 28)

Total: 62.1 (80% range 37 to 89)

Actual: UCF 13 – Florida 24 (margin error 4.9, total error 25.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.