Predicted scoreLikely
Tennessee
30.4
Arkansas
19.3
Arkansas win probability: 24%
Margin (Arkansas − Tennessee): -11.1 (80% range -31 to 9)
Total: 49.8 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Tennessee 14 – Arkansas 19 (margin error 16.1, total error 16.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.75% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.