2024 Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024, 11:00 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

Louisiana @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreLikely

Louisiana

35.2

Southern Miss

18.8

Southern Miss win probability: 15%

Margin (Southern Miss − Louisiana): -16.4 (80% range -38 to 4)

Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Louisiana 23 – Southern Miss 13 (margin error 6.4, total error 18.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.