Predicted scoreLean
Navy
25.5
Air Force
18.3
Air Force win probability: 31%
Margin (Air Force − Navy): -7.2 (80% range -27 to 11)
Total: 43.8 (80% range 23 to 66)
Actual: Navy 34 – Air Force 7 (margin error 19.8, total error 2.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 14 | 1.03% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.94% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.91% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.89% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.83% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.