2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 11:30 PM · Spartan Stadium
Ohio State @ Michigan State
Predicted scoreConfident
Ohio State
38.1
Michigan State
15.4
Michigan State win probability: 8%
Margin (Michigan State − Ohio State): -22.7 (80% range -44 to -3)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Ohio State 38 – Michigan State 7 (margin error 8.3, total error 8.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 10 | 0.83% |
| 31 | 7 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.71% |
| 28 | 7 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.