Predicted scoreLikely
Colorado
23.2
UCF
37.4
UCF win probability: 80%
Margin (UCF − Colorado): 14.2 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 60.6 (80% range 37 to 86)
Actual: Colorado 48 – UCF 21 (margin error 41.2, total error 8.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 38 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.58% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 21 | 35 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.