2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 7:30 PM · Allegiant Stadium
Fresno State @ UNLV
Predicted scoreLean
Fresno State
21.9
UNLV
26.3
UNLV win probability: 61%
Margin (UNLV − Fresno State): 4.4 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 48.1 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Fresno State 14 – UNLV 59 (margin error 40.6, total error 24.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.